AMNA NAWAZ: To decode what President Putin had to say today and assess the state of play of all this diplomacy, we turn now to two longtime Russia watchers.

Thomas Graham served on the National Security Council staff during the George W. Bush administration and at the state and Defense Departments.

He's now a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

And Andrew Weiss is a former State Department official who served in the George H.W.

Bush and Clinton administrations.

He's now the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Welcome to you both gentlemen.

Andrew, I will start with you.

You heard President Putin say he's open to proposals to stop the cease-fire, but he has questions.

What's your read on what he's doing here?

Does he actually want a cease-fire?

ANDREW WEISS, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: I think Vladimir Putin is going out of his way not to taunt the West, he's trying to look reasonable.

He's trying to avoid irritating Donald Trump, who's obviously invested his own personal prestige in trying to bring about the cease-fire.

But Vladimir Putin is in an uncomfortable position.

He's essentially been wrong-footed by the diplomacy that we saw in Saudi Arabia earlier this week.

And now he's the one who looks like he doesn't want peace.

He's the one who wants to impose conditions on any cease-fire.

AMNA NAWAZ: Thomas Graham, what's your take on this?

We should note you were in Moscow recently.

So how are you decoding what President Putin had to say?

THOMAS GRAHAM, Council on Foreign Relations: Well, I pretty much agree with what Andrew has just said.

Putin is under -- feels under no pressure to bring this war to an early settlement.

He has his demands.

He thinks that he is winning on the battlefield.

He sees the problems that Ukraine has.

So he's prepared to drag these out with discussions about his conditions.

The only thing that gives him pause is that he does want to develop a broader relationship with the United States.

So the question in his mind is, how far can he push President Trump?

How far can he resist an early settlement to this conflict and still maintain the possibility of a much broader working relationship with the United States?

AMNA NAWAZ: Andrew, what's your take on this?

Does Putin want more of a reset like we have heard from the Trump administration they want with Russia?

Does Russia want the same with the U.S. in terms of relations?

ANDREW WEISS: We don't know for sure what Vladimir Putin's thinking.

And I'm not going to try to do any mind reading here.

But we do know what the U.S. president is thinking.

And he's been remarkably consistent going back to his first moments as a candidate in 2016.

He has portrayed U.S.-Russia relations as an end in themselves.

He thinks that getting along with Russia can be an end in itself.

And then the justification for that shifts over time.

Right now, the Russians are suggesting maybe they won't work as closely with China.

Maybe they can help the United States deal with Iran's nuclear weapons program.

I'm abundantly skeptical that there's a "there" there.

But the opportunities that the Russians are dangling in front of the new administration look captivating to the team that's in place.

AMNA NAWAZ: Thomas, what's your take on that, especially with a view towards China and how Russia is viewing that right now?

THOMAS GRAHAM: Well, there are a couple of up points to make here.

First is that Russia thinks of itself as a great power and it wants to be validated as a great power.

And despite the very good relationships they have with China, the fact is, in the Kremlin's mind, there's only one country that can really validate them as a great power.

And that's the United States.

And talking to the United States is important in and of itself.

Second, I do think that Putin does have a broader strategy here.

Opening up relations with the United States, developing more constructive relations does give him greater leverage in his relationship with China.

Iran, and some of the other countries that he's relied on in the past.

It doesn't mean he's going to break with these countries, but he would like to balance the relationship more in Russia's favor than the current Sino-Russia relationship is at the moment.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, Thomas, given all of that and knowing that Ukraine wants to see some security guarantees here, is this an opportunity for the U.S. to push harder for Russia to take more actions or to get -- offer more security guarantees to Ukraine?

THOMAS GRAHAM: Yes, I think absolutely.

The United States does have leverage, and it's not so much in the sanctions and tariffs that President Trump has talked about.

It is in unity with the West.

It is in unity with the Ukrainians.

And it is, in a sense, playing on that desire that the Russians have to maintain a broader relationship, and using that some way in the negotiations to get Putin to make concessions and also to get Putin to agree to allow the West, the United States to provide some serious security guarantees to Ukraine going forward.

AMNA NAWAZ: Andrew, do you see this leading to a cease-fire and to some long-term deal in the wars?

ANDREW WEISS: Donald Trump seems determined to bring about some form of a cease-fire within his first 100 days, and that 100-day mark is reached on April 29.

So, he's in a tearing hurry.

I think he's eager to meet one-on-one with President Putin in coming weeks.

The real challenge is, you can't go into a negotiation without leverage, as Tom just said, and you can't look like you want the deal more than the other side wants it.

And so, instead of throwing cold water on this extensive relationship that the United States has with Ukraine and with Europe, the United States should be trying to find ways to demonstrate to Putin that he can't wait us out and that the longer this war goes on, the worse it's going to be for him.

It's not clear yet that the administration has figured out that they -- as Tom said, they can exploit that leverage and they can also enable Ukraine's lethality to hold at risk things inside Russia that Putin cares very much about.

AMNA NAWAZ: Thomas Graham, this is a Trump administration that prides itself on a very unconventional approach.

When you look at the team on the front lines of these negotiations, at the way these talks are unfolding, do you think they have the ability to negotiate and see through a cease-fire?

THOMAS GRAHAM: Well, look, I think quite frankly, there is a lack of Russia and Ukraine and European expertise at the highest levels of government.

And I think there is some pause as to whether they're going to be able to push this negotiation forward to a resolution that is satisfactory from the standpoints of American national interest.

I would note that the -- when I was in Moscow, the Russians also expressed concern about the lack of expertise, that they weren't confident that the that the administration clearly understood what Russia's position was and therefore were concerned that their -- that the president, Donald Trump, would come to some conclusions about what Putin was prepared to do or not prepared to do, and Putin pushing back against that could lead to a dust-up and then create a complication of this broader effort on the Russian part to build a much more constructive relationship with the United States.

AMNA NAWAZ: Andrew, we have got about 40 seconds left.

Do you agree with that?

ANDREW WEISS: I do.

And I think that, in a normal period, we would see the Trump team wait to get their senior officials in place, to get people through the Senate confirmation process, to put an ambassador in Moscow to conduct a policy review.

And I think it's legitimate to say that the previous administration's position, which they handed off to the Trump people, like, did need to be reviewed.

Russia has been winning on the battlefield for the past year.

That's unfortunate.

U.S. ability to sustain military support for Ukraine at the previous levels is going to be very difficult.

So the question is, is, what's the next phase?

And it shouldn't be ramming a cease-fire deal laden with conditions down Ukraine's throat.

That would be a big mistake.

AMNA NAWAZ: Andrew Weiss and Thomas Graham, our thanks to you both.

We appreciate your time.

ANDREW WEISS: Thank you.

THOMAS GRAHAM: Thank you.