- [Kelly] State Auditor Beth Woods says she's not seeking reelection, and that opens another Council of State seat for 2024, and gubernatorial campaigning heats up.

This is "State Lines."

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[upbeat music continues] ♪ [upbeat music continues] - Hello again, welcome back to "State Lines."

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today on the panel, political strategist, Joe Stewart, right here.

Good to see you, Joe.

- Mr. Kelly.

- Capital Bureau Chief of "The News & Observer," Dawn Vaughn, public relations consultant, Pat Ryan, to her right, and managing editor of "Cardinal & Pine," check him out, Billy Ball.

Hello to all of you, pretty busy week.

Let's start with, you can speak.

- Okay, yeah.

[laughs] [all laughing] - North Carolina's Council of State races for 2024 seem to be mostly wide open.

These are seats like attorney general, lieutenant governor, labor commissioner, treasurer, no incumbent seeking reelection, State Auditor Beth Wood joined that crowd, says she's not seeking reelection in 2024, so that opens the auditor's race.

She will have served 16 years, once her term ends next year, so we've got Josh Stein leaving the Attorney General's office, we have Mark Robinson leaving the lieutenant-governor's office, Treasurer Folwell wants the Republican nomination for governor, like Mr. Robinson.

The Labor Commissioner Josh Dobson said months ago, he's leaving office, I don't know where he's going, maybe just back to the regular world with the rest of us, Dawn, - Mm-hmm.

- Council of State, many open races, exciting, it is exciting.

- It is.

There's gonna be a lot of change, and Superintendent Truitt is running again.

Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler is running again, so there'll be some consistency, but, obviously, the change with the governor is the biggest change, - [Kelly] Mm-hmm.

- And the lieutenant, because everyone is all running for, or a lot of 'em, the same office, - [Kelly] Mm-hmm.

- Stein, and Robinson, and Folwell all at this table.

Their Council of State meetings are in the Department of Transportation building, downtown, and it's just interesting to watch how they engage in these meetings, knowing they all wanna switch spots at the table.

- Pat Ryan, you've worked with long-time leading, you know, state officials who are in a leadership position, they stay there, what provokes the thought of change to either just retire, "I've have had enough of Raleigh," versus, "Maybe, it's time to step to another office"?

- Yeah, I think the most common one is probably wanting to move up, right?

You're lieutenant-governor, you wanna be governor, you're perceived to be a lower, you know, standing on the elected totem pole, you wanna run for AG, so just some natural sort of ambition and progression there.

You know, a couple things that stand out to me of note are, I don't think, Don, correct me here, I don't think a Republican has lost a statewide elected race since 2018, and they haven't lost, well, there's only been one since then, in 2020, that they've swept all the Council of State and judicial races, so we'll see if that sort of momentum continues in 2024.

- Well, you had some popular Council of State people, Like, Troxler, - Sure.

- I think is the winningest, - No question, yeah.

- Of all Council of State, you know, everyone thinks about with him, and the fair, and he's just kind of this iconic North Carolina Council of State person, that's popular, not just with Republicans in this.

- Yeah, I should've said open, open races, right.

- Right.

- So, we'll see what happens in 2024, but, yeah, I think some natural sort of ambition and progression there.

- Billy, the Council of State races, they are partisan, but in some, in some cases, they very much are personality driven.

Steve Troxler's a popular Republican with Democrats, Beth Wood was clearly, is clearly popular with Republicans.

What's your analysis?

- I think that you're absolutely right, that some of these seats, you're right, they're partisan, but you find that they're a little more nuanced, sometimes, on the policies.

I think Beth Wood is a good example of somebody who seemed to have some respect on multiple sides.

I think Dale Folwell's a guy, who, you'll find liberals out there who go, "You know, I hear him talk about hospital costs," and I go, "Oh, you know, that's ringing some bells "that I like to hear."

So, I think that, you know, you've got seats that aren't always going to get the most attention in the headlines.

So, when they do get the attention, it can be like, kinda like, like, is it because they did something wrong?

[chuckles] It can be for negative reasons, so I think we have a group of people who found some ways to be, you know, interesting to people on both sides, and might I add as well, you know, I sure hope you're not gonna pop quiz us on who's moving where and when, 'cause it's too many, but this feels like one of those elections where, just, you know, just a shift, like a real change in who's leading in North Carolina.

I mean, with Roy Cooper, we, most people presumed he was running for governor when he was Attorney General, so it feels like he's been running for governor, or governor for about 20 years, [Joe laughs] and I think that this election just feels like, you know, it's moving a lot of things through, a lot of things are changing.

- Joe, if I put on my Joe Stewart hat, I think you did work for a treasurer at one time in your life.

- Yep.

- When does a Council of State executive, as best you can analyze, say, "You know, my work here is done, "it's time to move on"?

- Well, you know, it's interesting, we really are at a crossroads in North Carolina political history.

For much of the 20th century, these down-ballot Council of State seats were held by what were, in effect, technocrats.

I mean the state was unilaterally democratic, in terms of performance, for these statewide executive branch offices, but the people that sought them, sought them for decades.

They stayed in those offices for 20, 30 years, and they performed those functions of the executive branch, because that was the area of public policy that they were particularly interested in.

I think you see a lot more sharp elbows now, people seeing the opportunity to leverage their experience in one of these Council of State seats for some higher office.

You know, the joke was, we called the attorney general the AG, but that actually stood for, "aspiring governor," [chuckles] that they were laying out the groundwork for that.

Lieutenant governor had not been as successful a threshold drug into the governor's race, - Yeah.

- As much as in the past, but I think as the state has become more of a 50/50 Democrat-Republican performance place, we're gonna see more younger people, I think, in particular, seek out these Council of State seats on a very specific platform of issues, that feel right to them to talk about, whatever that subject matter is.

The challenge for anybody running for a council of seat state is most of the voters don't know what those functions are.

They don't really truly understand what the treasurer does, or the auditor does, superintendent of public instruction, they get a kind of sense of it, but none of these offices really have the capacity to generate the kind of campaign support necessary to spend the $2 million a week it takes to be on TV sufficiently to build up your name recognition, so what they run on is whatever it is they feel gets some of the votes that make a difference in that race.

- Well, they're pretty low profile, - Yeah.

- And when former Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, she became very high profile, - Right.

- Because of her picture in the elevator, - [Joe] Right.

- And so, everybody knew her as this North Carolina, - [Joe] Right.

- Icon, but generally, I think people are gonna be looking at the other races and then maybe, it might be party line, or if they've heard their name in some way, like Jon Hardister, the Republican front runner for Labor Commissioner.

He's already got his car, labor force one.

He's very like, trying to get his image out there and some of that is what can win you Council of State races.

- Yeah, right.

- Yeah, but none of them can sort of bring the funding to bear to run a proper race.

You're right, Joe.

And so, I mean, there's some narrower constituencies that might be able to bring in something like, Labor Commissioner, for example, is very important to the business community, in some cases.

So maybe you can raise some money there, but yeah, generally, it's kind of a crapshoot.

- And if election laws change every cycle, it seems, you still can't vote straight party.

You can't just hit the D or the R and cover all your council of state.

If you're a voter, you need to at least know who you're voting for, right?

You would have to know each race.

- Well, you know, we used to see when there was straight ticket voting in North Carolina, there was an attrition of about 250,000 votes cast from the top of the ticket.

From the presidential race down to the last Council of State, people just didn't vote in those races.

And I thought once we did away with the straight ticket voting, we would see an enormous amount of attrition.

That didn't happen, but people went like this.

They went back and forth between Democrats and the Council of State and was exactly to your point.

One candidate had come up with some way to distinguish themselves in a state where you really are at a 48-48 starting point between Democrats and Republicans.

If you could come up with some creative way in a down ballot council of state race to get that other 3%, a Democrat or a Republican can win, if they're clever enough to figure out how to get that 3%.

- Pat, is it about branding on the campaign trail you're running?

Say for Hardister, he's got labor force one or any candidate that's running a retail brand, you're not gonna dive into labor policy, I wouldn't imagine.

So, how do you set yourself apart?

- Yeah, that's the question I mean, you can have a brilliant branded campaign, you can have great slogans and great talking points and great everything, but if you don't have the money to tell people about yourself, then none of that really matters.

So certainly, it's a branding exercise and a campaign strategy exercise, but you need money in order to have people just know about any of that stuff and most of these races aren't gonna have that money.

- Billy, does the media reporter, such as yourself, do you have an obligation to at least bring some awareness to the council of state races?

Because the energy will clearly be on the gubernatorial race and whenever the presidential candidates come into the state.

- Absolutely, especially because these positions wield a lot of power in the daily lives of folks.

I mean, I don't think that people realize, you know, Falwell came into his job and made some changes with the state health plan that's affected how many people in this state?

I don't have the number off the top of my head, but these are roles, you know, when you're talking about insurance, whether you're talking about the state auditor, that wield some influence and they have some power.

And they're also, you know, as you mentioned before, they tend to get less attention from the media, but I think every person in these seats, it doesn't mean they lack ambition.

You know, an old colleague of mine told me that almost every politician you meet has a plan in the back of their head where they could be president of the United States.

- You hope you catch lightning.

- And so, you do.

You watch them and you see where they're going and what their ambition is.

You usually get a sense for where their ambition is.

- All right, Joe, Tim Moore, current North Carolina House speaker is retiring from the House and now it says, or people are saying he's gonna run for the US House.

He had announced earlier this year, he's giving up the gavel for the North Carolina House of Representatives.

It's expected that he'll announce next week.

He wants that 14th congressional seat.

It's now a Republican leaning district.

Joe, currently served by Jeff Jackson, who released a TikTok saying he couldn't win this new district.

He's off to the Attorney General's race, speaking of open races.

Tim Moore, is there celebrity in being a State House speaker when you go home to run for the US House?

- Well, I think the most important aspect of this new 14th congressional district is that about 14 or 15% of the voters in it live in Cleveland County, which is the current district for Tim Moore.

I think he is a very strong candidate.

He comes with a long history of legislative service.

He's had some issues and he's dealt with those.

He's tried to create, I think, a stronger conservative bonafides.

He recently visited the southern border.

He came out and announced he was endorsing Donald Trump.

These are the things that a republican candidate for Congress would wanna do.

Pat Harrigan, who is the Republican that ran against Jeff Jackson in the 14th district, such as it was configured in 2022, has already announced his intentions to run.

He referred to Speaker Moore as a casino advocate in this recent announcement of the speaker.

So I think that's gonna be a big part of that Republican primary dynamic.

Harrigan contending that Moore is an insider and Moore being able to talk about the things he's accomplished for the district as their house representative.

And, of course, being speaker, he's been able to deliver pretty strongly for that part of the state.

- And he hasn't hid the money that, you know.

I talked to him.

Wrote about how the Cleveland County Courthouse.

He got, you know, several million dollars and the way his description was, well, I'm not gonna be here next cycle.

I'm bringing money back to the district.

So he's been thinking about this for a while and, of course, he considered running in 2022, also.

- Pat, Speaker Moore running for...

He goes from the top of the state leadership structure to... Is there a back bench in the US House when you're a rookie, are you treated like a rookie?

- For sure and that was actually in my notes to bring up.

So first, to Joe's point, I think there was quite a bit of advantage in just being a seasoned, you know, political veteran anywhere.

You have your campaign structure in place, you have your team, you have fundraising connections you wouldn't otherwise have.

So I think that he comes out of the gate as a front runner, right?

[chuckles] But yeah, Kelly, to your point, I think it'd be tough, at least for me.

It's a personal question, but to go from being, you know, the top guy or one of the top guys in a state to being number 435 out of 435.

I'm sure he's thought about that and has decided that he's okay with it and, you know, wants to rise through the ranks there, but you're certainly starting over.

- Could a startup candidate, someone who's ran in that district before Mr. Harrigan, is that a legitimate argument to run against Tim Moore?

He's an establishment person.

He's a casino advocate.

It makes him sound like big business.

- All the Republicans are, I mean, except for- - Well, sure.

- You know, freedom Caucus in the house or casino advocates, you know, if it's money for your district.

- But back in Cleveland County, you start running ads, you know, it's different in there than it is in Raleigh, I would think, at least in the vibe.

- Yeah, I don't know what, you know, the polling down there shows in terms of whether people support or oppose casinos and whether it's really a salient issue, whether they care about it that much.

I don't know.

But so, I don't know that necessarily, there's the rationale and then Mr. Harrigan decided to run.

I think Mr. Harrigan decided to run and now, he's coming up with the rationale to defeat his primary opponent, which, you know, the easiest one, of course, that comes to mind is you're an establishment, you know, figure.

- Billy, Republican leaning district.

So, do you feel as though from your analysis with your team that this race will be a Republican primary race?

Could a Democrat sneak in there and win this?

- It seems like a pretty comfortable district for somebody like Tim Moore and I think that there was not a lot of surprise in the Media Corps, in political circles that this was something that Tim Moore might look at, especially once you saw the maps come out, that it looked like a cozy seat for him.

And I think that the sort of things that, we've talked about the kind of background that Tim Moore brings, which is, in terms of Republican policy, he's been very effective at getting Republican policies passed as a speaker.

At the same time, he's also been very visible in some big time controversies, in the HB2 passage, in numerous claims of gerrymandering.

He's had his own scandals this year to deal with as well.

But I think those kinds of drawbacks aren't going to be as big a drawback in a congressional race like this, in a district like this for him, as opposed to a statewide race if Tim Moore ran.

So I think Tim Moore is a good example of someone as well, who for years has been very visible at the top of the leadership structure in the state legislature, more so than his counterpart, Phil Berger in the Senate.

I think he has a little bit more of a taste for the cameras than Phil Berger seems to.

Not knowing- - That's an understatement.

- Yeah.

[everyone laughs] Not knowing each of them personally.

That's what it seems.

But at the same time, that also comes with the drawbacks.

The negative things that people associate with the legislature are going to end up being associated with him as well.

But I don't think it'll be a big issue for him in a congressional district like this.

- Joe, what does it mean now?

He's not a local candidate for, in many, many ways, the 14th district makes him a local candidate versus a statewide brand.

What are the differences you think out there on the campaign trail?

- Well, again, I think as Dawn alluded to, anytime somebody has served in the state legislature, they want to talk to the things they've actually been able to deliver back in the district.

That's the manifestation that most voters locally think about.

"Well, they did these things that are beneficial to us here locally."

Another key criteria in this is where will the Republican party be in March of next year relative to what's really gonna turn out voters in the primary, the presidential contest?

Or is Donald Trump, by that point, considered to be the nominee?

So maybe there's not as big a turnout because of Robinson running in the Republican primary for governor.

It may be a more strong surge of Republican turnout in the primary and that would affect all of these down ballot races, including the congressional contest.

But I think Tim Moore is a smart, seasoned politician.

He becomes a very strong candidate.

He's certainly known within the Republican establishment in Washington.

I think that gives him a little bit of an advantage.

- All right, well, it appears that North Carolina's new congressional district maps will be challenged in federal court.

The federal argument would be the new districts might, or will overly dilute or diminish minority voting strength.

Republican leaders say race was never a factor in their map making.

And Democrats, Billy say, "How could it not be?"

What's interesting is candidates are now running full-throated for office in the spectrum of a federal lawsuit.

How do you see this playing out?

- I think the courts are a little friendlier these days to gerrymandering than they were some years ago, 'cause we've had numerous challenges to, on the grounds of racial and partisan gerrymandering over the years.

That said, this is not, this is an issue that I feel like you can't be blunt enough on.

Gerrymandering is an old, old thing.

It started with some guys in a secret room drawing maps to their favor.

Now, it's some guys in a back room with a computer that helps them make a map that is very favorable to them, in some ways, in some districts, makes 'em almost immune to elections, which is, and I think that that should be the, when democracy advocates get very concerned in this country, they look at states like ours.

They bring up North Carolina all the time as one of the most troubling ideas for how gerrymandering can play out.

And I think that over the years we've seen this come up, we saw it come up with the Democrats.

They did it for years.

The Republicans came in, I think they were better at it than the Democrats were at doing this, at uplifting the votes of the people they wanted to lift, and pushing down the ones they didn't.

And I think right now, the only people who are really defending this is something that we do.

This is just part of the process.

Are people who work in politics, and maybe journalists who wanna protect some sources.

But I think that general people know that basically gerrymandering is a way for one side.

Look, here's my metaphor, somebody wins the Super Bowl, they come back the next year, and say, "Okay, we're putting 11 guys on the field, y'all are putting five."

And that's part of our right as winners.

I think we see this year after year.

And I think some of the people who are gonna come on the show and tell you it's just part of the process, if positions were reversed, they'd be jumping up and down on the table.

- I wanted to say 11 sounds really, like a really good number to me.

[Joe laughs] - There's a reason I chose 11.

[Joe laughs] - Pat, but people will say that's the way it's been done.

And when I was in the Capitol Press Corps, Joe Hackney, the former State House speaker kind of chuckled on set one time, and said, "The minority party that can't get their hands on the maps always want an independent redistricting commission."

And it flip flops.

So this is the way it is to, contrary to what people might would want in terms of a 50, 50 shot at winning a race.

So where does this go?

How do we get great candidates in those democratic districts?

How do we get great candidates in those Republican districts?

- How do you get great, sometimes you end up with great candidates, sometimes you don't.

There's some recruitment that goes on from the powers that be in DC.

But sometimes you just get stuck with a candidate who doesn't have a great background.

That's just the way it is.

Redistricting is the most political process that can possibly exist.

You're drawing political boundaries.

In my opinion, no matter who does it.

A so-called independent commission, legislators, judges, no matter who does it, it's a zero sum political game, where you put the line benefits one party, and disadvantages another party.

There's no way that's ever going to be objectively fair to the majority of people.

- Does the idea of the candidates who are dropping out like Jeff Jackson, and those who are jumping in like Tim Moore, does that indicate there is a confidence on a bipartisan basis that whether you like the districts or not, they will likely withstand a court challenge?

- I think Jeff Jackson was gonna lose his district anyway.

I mean, I think going into it, he knew that Republicans were gonna draw him out of his district.

I think that was pretty, and the attorney generally just waited until it was final.

But he was expecting that.

And we already know that they tried to draw a district for more last time, but he didn't end up running.

So.

- Yeah, and there's, no matter what happens, people need to start their campaigns.

In North Carolina, we've had new districts, what, every two years for like the last two decades?

You have to start your campaign at some point, and just see what happens.

But on the racial gerrymandering claims, the case law has been so back and forth for so many years, you can't consider race and unless in these particular circumstances you must consider race or you should consider race.

50% Black voters is too many, but 35% is too few.

There's truly, in my opinion, no way to really know what the rules are in that context.

- Joe, your look.

- Yeah, well, well there are two things that I would say.

In addition to the way the maps are drawn, and I think the technology makes it so exquisitely specific in terms of who you can combine.

And again, the thing to remember, we talk about a particular legislative congressional district's likelihood of producing a incumbent to one part or the other.

That's really based on the historical voting patterns of the people in that district.

People are locked in now.

That's another facet of this, is that the strong partisanship that infects really our current politics is a significant part of this.

But I would say in terms of state legislative districts, there's another problem that we need to fix.

Before we decide what's the right way to draw districts, we have got to do something about the terms of legislative service.

This is an antiquated way of providing for our legislative functionalities in this state.

We still think of it, oh, it's a part-time legislature, but these are full-time challenges that they're having to deal with.

For us to be competitive in a 21st century economy, we need legislators that have staff, that they know that there's a finiteness to the session, and that we're working to get things done in a timely fashion.

If you have a part-time legislature where people are not convinced appropriately and have an adequate staff, it doesn't matter how the maps are drawn, the process is not gonna be good.

- Let's shift over to the gubernatorial race where Democratic candidate Mike Morgan and new Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham have each released campaign ads this week and last week.

Mr. Morgan is the former state Supreme Court Justice who says he's running to challenge the democratic status quo, where in his opinion, candidates seem to be chosen by power brokers.

Bill Graham, the attorney from Salisbury, entered the Republican primary in late October, says he'll invest up to $5 million of his own cash in the GOP nomination.

Pat, tell me about these folks that are just under, where they're under the leaders, how do they make a difference?

Do ads matter this early?

Can they break through?

- Yeah, I mean they're doing the only thing that you can do as a somewhat late entrant into a primary where there are two pretty strong perceived front runners already.

You do an ad and hope it cuts through all the noise and that people notice it, and probably that ad has to focus on who you are and where he came from.

And so you saw both those ads do just that.

I just think it's hard to produce a really compelling ad where a political candidate is either all the voiceover, or speaking direct to camera the whole time.

There's a reason that most ads have actors in them, because they know how to seem authentic.

They don't have a different voice when they're speaking to the camera, right?

You just don't have that with politicians 'cause they're not trained actors, and so it just, unless you're really special, I think most of these ads just sound a little bit off because they are, they're not actual ads.

They're people who aren't actors trying to explain who they are in a way that's, I think, tough.

- Well, Morgan had in his ad, and the big difference between Morgan and Graham is Graham has already spent millions of dollars.

The ads are running statewide on TV and all markets where Morgan is the underdog in the Democratic primary against Stein.

And so his is just going out on social media and fundraising, that sort of thing.

But he has these young actors that are portraying Morgan growing up when he desegregated schools and was the first Black drum major at his high school.

And then Morgan himself comes on and talks a little bit about that, it was pretty compelling.

- That's true.

I would say that Morgan himself was the majority of the ad, but there were other, that, that's a good point.

- And Billy reporters are talking about the first ads.

We did it with Josh Stein, we've done it with Mark Robinson, now we're doing it with Mr. Graham and Justice Morgan.

- I think if you want to get attention from the media, say some things that makes everybody go, what, what did you just say?

- And I think watching the Graham ad where he talked about as governor putting people in the ground, I believe, are the words that he used, and talked about the death penalty for drug dealers.

I think that what's interesting to me when I look at ads like that is I see a consistent theme in the coverage that we've seen on right-leaning networks like Fox News, a lot of crime talk.

This has been going on for a long time and it's generally directed in the area that crime from the cities is spilling over into suburbs.

And there's a racial element to this that we don't often talk about, but it's absolutely true.

And when I think when people see a man talking about putting drug dealers in the ground and death penalty and stuff like that, that's kind of an old thing, but sure, it's gonna get the reporters going, it's going to get some people who are, I think, on the far right, pretty fired up.

That sounds like an exciting idea to them.

But it's also not something that, to my knowledge, governors can do, just start executing drug dealers.

So I think in some ways, it's out of the box and a little bit silly, but it's also, it's something I think that we should take serious.

- Joe, no time to get the last word for you this week, my friend.

I'm under 30 seconds, so I have to turn it back to our audience and to thank you so much for joining us and to our panelists for analyzing the issues, email your thoughts and opinions at statelines@pbsnc.org.

We read every email, I promise you that.

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Thank you so much for watching and we'll see you next time.

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