- [Kelly] The State Board of Elections finalizes North Carolina's primary results and sets the stage for runoffs, and President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris visit the Tar Heel State as the 2024 election gets underway.

This is "State Lines."

- [Announcer] Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you who invite you to join them in supporting PBS NC.

[compelling music continues] ♪ - Hi there again.

Welcome back to "State Lines."

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today, political strategist Morgan Jackson.

There you see him.

Senator Vickie Sawyer's to his right.

She represents Iredell and Mecklenburg Counties.

To her right, your left, Senator Graig Meyer of Caswell Orange, and Person Counties, and our good friend editor in chief of the "Carolina Journal," Donna King, rounds out the panel today.

Let's get right to it.

The ballot is almost complete for the 2024 election.

Three runoffs remain to settle a Republican congressional primary, as well as Republican nominations for lieutenant governor and state auditor.

Only 24% or 24%, however you wanna look at this, of North Carolina voters cast primary ballots, down from 2020, but still about 1.8 million votes.

About 1,600 ballots were ultimately not counted.

There was some attention placed on that number due to the new state election laws being in effect for the first time, which brings this to voter ID, Donna.

About 1,200 voters cast provisional ballots because they had no ID with them.

708 of those were counted, and most that weren't counted were because the voters simply never came back with their ID card.

I guess they told 'em they would be back.

- Sure, sure.

I mean, that's part of the process.

And of course, as the first major rollout that we've seen, a major election with voter ID in place, the State Board of Elections says that they feel like it went pretty smoothly.

It comes down to about six in every 10,000 votes, maybe six and a half in every 10,000 votes.

So that's something that I think that we'll see less of that going forward as the word gets out as more folks become aware of that.

And most of the people who did file a provisional ballot filled out a form that says, okay, I don't have an ID because of this, and they get to choose something.

So really filling out that form makes a difference and it means that more and more people are able to do it even if they don't have one.

And then I think we'll see more of that.

And particularly when we see that the deadline for getting in absentee ballots is now Election Day, or that was one thing that the State Board of Elections really had to promote.

We may see...

I think it would be helpful if we saw maybe the absentee ballot application go a little bit earlier and widen that window a bit, but right now, all ballots, absentee ballots have to be in by 7:30 on Election Day.

- Senator Meyer, what do you think of the primary?

It's locked in.

You received the fair share of those 1.8 million votes.

So, congratulations.

- I appreciate having no primary opponent.

I got my certification of winning the week after I filed.

It was great.

I was kind of surprised.

I think a lot of people were surprised by what happened in this primary.

Republican enthusiasm was really high, and they came out and elected folks who were pretty much MAGA right folks.

And out of our legislative colleagues who were running in either statewide positions or congressional positions trying to move up the ladder, all of them lost except for Tim Moore.

Republicans went with people who had not been politicians before.

It was about as far right as you could get in some of the races.

And meanwhile on our side, on the Democratic side, not as much turnout, not as many competitive primaries, left some lingering hard feelings about some of the primaries, especially along racial lines that we gotta work out in our party, but there's a lot of time between now and Election Day.

We got that work to do.

- Senator Sawyer, so what do you make of that?

The primaries were a time for Democrats and a few Republicans.

- Yeah.

- It seemed there was a purity test out there if you didn't...

If you voted a little bit across party lines a little too much, you're gone.

- Yeah, the folks who are in both of our bases are very vocal, and a lot of it is anger.

And I can talk from the Republican point of view.

When I go see my local party folks, there's still this COVID hangover.

And I think a lot of what you're seeing is the folks who are active now weren't active five or 10 years ago, and they look at those who are elected as those people who are like the Illuminati that were people who are overlording them during the COVID, and they see us all as a bunch of bums and won us all out.

And that's what you're seeing in the Republican party.

I think some of the people that we elected in the primaries were absolutely not MAGA far right extremists, but some of them just hit that nerve of anger in our base.

And we'll see if those folks continue to show up in these next upcoming front off elections.

- Morgan, there's a lot of votes and angry voters being motivated to come out.

Why can't strategists get people to come to the polls for positive reasons rather than...

It seems the last few cycles, the best money's been, I really need you to be scared of the opponent.

- So the truth of the matter is, Kelly, in politics, anger and fear are the chief motivators.

I wish hope and sunshine and rainbows were.

And I wish that there's a reason that regardless of the campaign and regardless of the party, that negative ads continue to be run, even though voters say they hate 'em.

The reason they run is 'cause they work 'cause that's what voters respond to.

Look at the presidential race, which I think is a great example.

What is motivating Democrats right now?

The most motivating thing for Democrats is to keep Trump from returning to office.

What is motivating Republicans is making sure that Joe Biden leaves office, and it is a fear and anger of the opposite party.

And so I think you saw that.

And I think Vickie's point is right.

I think a lot of the folks in the primary are further to the left and further to the right than your voter are gonna be this fall.

I think one of my big takeaways from the primary is you look at the folks that the Republicans nominated in a lot of these offices.

Not only are they not general assembly, and folks who had experience lost, but you had people who are further extreme and especially in the office of governor and attorney general and especially superintendent of Public Instruction that don't fit North Carolina values and are so far to the left.

You get places like the ultra conservative North Carolina Chamber saying this is a little concerning.

This is a little concerning at who lost these primaries.

- Are you saying extreme or do you mean partisan?

They're just super partisan, Super Democrat, super Republican.

- I know, listen.

- Extreme sounds like it's a war-like.... - When you have the nominee for superintendent of Public Instruction who goes on Twitter and calls for the assassination of the president who says that public schools, the only reason she's running is because our kids are being indoctrinating and turning gay, that's not partisan.

That's crazy.

- Leave it at that.

Donna, what do you make of the ballot?

The ballot's set.

We got a few elections still under contest that may get thrown out, but the ballot is set.

Republicans had a lot of turnout and a lot of runoffs.

There's like three still active.

Democrats seem to have a cleaner slate.

- Sure.

- What plays into that?

Why were the Democrats able to get their nominees out there on the campaign trail but Republicans still wait on three races?

- Of course, I think one thing that North Carolina particularly that Democrats are really good at is clearing that field for one candidate because primaries are expensive.

That's the reality.

Republicans are not as good in it.

Everybody jumps in the pool, and that's just kind of the way it is.

And they blow a lot of money before they even get to the general election.

So I think in this case we saw a lot of races where there were a huge slate of Republican candidates and one Democrat candidate, and we saw some congressional races there wasn't a Democrat candidate at all.

It's very judicious in the way that they're spending that money.

Republicans would say, "Hey, look, you know, "we want to give everybody a shot, "and we want to get everybody in there," but I think that's a lot of the reason why we're seeing three Republican runoffs, particularly in pretty high profile races coming up in May.

- Yeah, let's talk about the 13th Congressional District's Republican primary runoff.

Well, it pit Kelly Daughtry against Brad Knott.

Over a dozen Republicans had sought that seat.

None received the 30% of the vote you need to win.

This is one of those newly drawn 13th districts.

New district, old name where the current Democratic incumbent representative Wiley Nickel you see there did not seek reelection.

Looked at the numbers.

Morgan said they're not in a Democrat's favor, but we'll go to Graig on this one, Graig Meyer.

Frank Pierce is stepping forward, will replace Nickel on the ticket and face the Republican nominee.

Longshot candidacy for the Democrat.

I always commend people who run those types of campaigns 'cause they don't get a lot of support, but at least there's a D on the ballot and an option.

- Yeah, same.

I wanna be able to have somebody to vote for on every piece of the ballot, knowing in some cases that they're unlikely to win, but you wanna have a choice.

And in this case, Pierce will run as a Democrat, and he'll have the Democrats behind him, but the way the new districts are drawn and gerrymandered, it's pretty unlikely that he's gonna win.

And he's gonna be running against a Republican who comes from type of Republican royalty.

Both Daughtry and Knott come from big Republican families.

And when I say royalty, I mean they've got access to a lot of money.

No surprise in the crowded field that they came out ahead because Daughtry obviously is the daughter of former state rep Leo Daughtry.

Miss you, Leo, appreciated you in the House when we served together.

And spent a significant amount of her own money on trying to win, as well as going farther to the right than she had when she ran for this same seat two years ago.

And then Knott is the nephew of Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul Newby, another family that spends a lot of money on politics.

And he ran into a little challenge in this race that people were accusing him of a voting irregularity, voting at the wrong address, an issue that could be kryptonite in Republican field.

I'm gonna predict in this one that it's gonna be Knott who's gonna come out with the win because Republican voters tend to vote for a man over a woman more often than not, and I just think that may be the deciding factor when both of these people put their money on the line.

- Couldn't have teed you up better, Senator Sawyer.

Go for it.

- Well, if you're a Republican and you're voting and you're a woman, make sure you vote for me in the fall.

[all laugh] I kid, but, you know, I often don't agree with Senator Meyer, but I do agree with that point.

My own polling in my primary, Republican women tended to lean towards the man in the race and not the women, and I've seen that as something that happens, at least in polling data and things that I showed that come up.

I'm interested to see how this race is 'cause, you're right, it is like two royalties going back and forth.

But again, to Donna's point, it really is troublesome 'cause it's just sucking so much time and energy and money out of the political sphere for us Republicans when we need to go in and try to win in November.

- Morgan, there is a runoff.

It's gonna cost money.

Does that help Pierce sit on on this case, or does it help other Democrats elsewhere if Republicans are spending money right there around the eastern part of the Triangle?

- Oh, it certainly does.

You know, I've always said Republican primaries are great for democracy, and Republican runoffs are even better for democracy.

[Senator Sawyer laughs] But the truth of the matter is I think this is a fascinating race.

I agree with everything that's been said so far.

You know, look at the window into the campaign that Kelly Daughtry ran unsuccessfully last time when Bo Hines beat her in the primary.

And one of the reasons I think Kelly might come out of this runoff is because she's shown an ability to adapt into change and run a really smart campaign this time.

Knott obviously as a newcomer ran a good campaign as well.

They were, as Donna said, I don't know, 64 people in that primary.

It was a ridiculously long list.

It was 14 or whatever it was.

And so it's gonna be fascinating.

But the real key here is it comes down to, if you think 24% turnout was low, in a runoff, you're talking like 4% turnout, and it really becomes who turns out to vote, who's gonna run the...

This is not really a paid media campaign at this point.

It's about can you get your supporters to the polls in a really, really low turnout?

And that'll determine it.

- Donna, here's the thing, 4% turnout's gonna determine a congressional seat.

If statistics hold up, there's a Democratic tidal wave.

Mr. Pierce may pull off a huge upset.

I'm never gonna say he can't, but that's a low threshold.

And in other races, there's no competition.

So the primary voter is selecting the general election winner.

Do people understand that when they don't vote in a primary?

- I think so.

Well, particularly when you're talking about the Daughtry Knott race.

I mean, when you have that level of it really is gonna come down to how closely they can motivate the truly, truly engaged party folks.

How many people can they fit in their car and get to the polls?

I mean, that's basically what it's gonna come down to.

And with Daughtry and Knott, I'm kind of leaning more toward Daughtry only because she's a Johnston County person, and this district is deep red Johnson County, which has, you know, been changing.

People have been watching very closely over the last few years.

Challenges for Daughtry, though, is that Republicans are criticizing her because in past elections, she's donated to Democrats, and they see that as, you know, a deal breaker for them.

And then, of course, what you mentioned about Knott, Knott was casting ballots at his parents' address for years.

So both of those things really can be kryptonite for a Republican running in this election.

So it is gonna come down to the truly motivated, the Republican base, the base of the base in Johnston County and parts of Wake County.

- And correct me if I'm wrong, this is a district, it's a statewide show.

People won't know what 13th District is.

It starts, what, Southern Raleigh and kind of creeps around the east through Clayton in that area.

- Yeah, Johnston County used to be kind of a standalone, but it really, over the last particularly decade, has grown into a suburb of urban Raleigh.

But you see a lot of people, particularly conservatives, choosing to move into Johnston County and commute back into Raleigh because, one, taxes, local taxes are a big deal, but also because of some of those politics that they disagree with in this part of Wake County, and they're choosing to go to Johnston County or that part of Wake County.

- Nice.

Senator Sawyer, I wanna briefly preview the GOP primary runoff for lieutenant governor.

We've got Hal Weatherman facing Jim O'Neill.

Mr. Weatherman was a former Republican lieutenant governor, Dan Forest's chief of staff.

Mr. O'Neill is the Forsyth County district attorney who's ran twice and gave Morgan's guy, Josh Stein, a very close runs for office.

Tell me about these two candidates.

Republicans have a choice.

- They do have a choice for lieutenant governor, and it's not necessarily a clear choice 'cause unless you're in party politics, you may not really know either one of these guys.

Hal Weatherman I think does have a little bit of an edge on this because to Donna's point, or to Morgan's point, it's gonna be the base of the base that's gonna come out for this turnout election.

Hal Weatherman's got, gosh, eight years of history running around with Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest visiting each and every one of these party headquarters.

And so I think he would probably be the party favorite.

However, I'm always surprised at how Jim O'Neill's like turns out.

I mean, I don't know if there's just this silent group of these courthouses across the state that turn out and protect their own because he is a DA in Winston-Salem.

So it'll be interesting to see who truly does turn out for this election.

- Morgan, were you running Josh Stein's campaigns for AG?

- Yes.

- What made Jim O'Neill a candidate that you had to pay close attention to, 'cause those 10,000 votes separated them.

- Donald Trump.

- [Kelly] Donald Trump was there.

- Yes, yes.

- Well, he's back.

- He is back.

So here's what I'll say.

I think, Vickie, I agree with everything Vickie just said.

I think when you look at how Weatherman, he spent the last 10, 12, whatever years building his space, I mean, I looked at their campaign finance reports, and I think how Weatherman spent more money at Sheetz gas stations than Jim O'Neill spent, as much as Jim O'Neill spent on television communicating with the voters.

Hal won 60 some counties, I think, out of 100.

It feels like to me he's got that.

I'd also say that Jim O'Neill is much more moderate on a lot of issues.

Hal Weatherman is much more focused on issues and talks about immigration every day, talks about things that Republican primary, much less runoff voters are focused on, is much more conservative in this race.

And Jim O'Neill has run.

I think Republicans also look at Jim O'Neill as a guy who's run, now this is his third election in a row that he hasn't been successful.

And, you know, that is what it is.

- The lieutenant governor's race, these two candidates, are they as conservative as Mark Robinson?

Republicans rallied around Mr. Robinson.

Will anyone here try to follow those footsteps, or is this back to more of a traditional Republican?

- Yeah, I think, you know, to what Morgan said, you might see Hal Weatherman having more ideologically in common with the current lieutenant governor.

But the interesting thing about lieutenant governor is that person can kind of define the role itself.

Their primary job right now is to break ties in the North Carolina Senate.

So if you move forward to the general election, they're gonna be facing Rachel Hunt who, of course, talk about a pedigree, a political pedigree, a daughter of former governor Jim Hunt.

So whoever advances in this runoff will face Rachel Hunt, and they're gonna be in a North Carolina Senate where their primary role is to break ties.

And so do voters want a Republican or a Democrat in that role?

That's gonna be the big question, but the role itself for lieutenant governor, whoever holds it, kind of picks what they do, and they sit on a lot of education boards, and you would see Jim O'Neill probably go toward, you know, fighting crime kind of thing, and Hal Weatherman maybe go stick with the education that Mark Robinson has.

So it would be a really interesting race once we get into the general.

- And Senator Meyer, I see a lot of correlation between the old Dan Forest campaigns for lieutenant governor, the bus, the flashy.

- Well, Hal ran those campaigns, yeah.

- I mean, the branding's there.

Jim O'Neill is also known, and they're very close, neck and neck.

Tell us about from your side, Rachel Hunt, Hunt is a royal name in Democratic circles.

- Definitely another example of royalty.

She's even using her father's campaign logo as her campaign logo.

- [Donna] Smart.

- Very smart.

Although if you think about it, Governor Hunt left office in 2000.

There's a lot of people that have moved to North Carolina.

People have been born and come of age to be able to vote who don't remember Governor Hunt.

So Rachel's still gotta forge her own identity.

To me, the question in the LG's race is, how good of a messenger are you for the brand that you're carrying, for the party that you're representing?

Because the job itself, nothing.

Least important job, smallest responsibilities.

The job doesn't actually matter to how the state of North Carolina functions day-to-day.

But you take somebody like Mark Robinson who's able to become of a voice and a representative of the party and you're able to elevate the job some, in the campaign we'll see from both sides who's able to take it to that level.

- Will the next lieutenant governor build upon Mark Robinson's ability to elevate what would be an innocuous state position?

Not to become a loud voice or someone who knows how to bring attention, but the fact the lieutenant governor does have a pulpit from which they can say things and do things.

- We'll see, I don't know.

That's a great question.

I think, like Donna said, whomever gets that role is gonna be able to define that role.

And like I also agree with Graig, and there's really not much - We're on the same page today.

- Yeah, I know, oh my gosh.

I think I need to go back to Republican camp if I continue to agree with Senator Meyer here.

- You better be glad your primary's over that's all I can tell you.

- All right, president Joe Biden and the Vice President Harris visited North Carolina this week.

Morgan, do you know about that?

They stopped in Raleigh.

- [Morgan] It was a great time.

- I tell you what this visit highlighted federal healthcare laws, also served as a fundraising visit that I read went quite well for the president and vice president.

President Biden has visited eight US states on a post state of the union address tour.

There's a lot of hubbub.

North Carolinians are elevating on the Republican side.

Michael Whatley has left the state GOP, the chair the Republican National Convention.

Jason Simmons of Wake County was elected to become the new state GOP chairman.

But let's talk about your team, Morgan.

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris here at the same time.

What makes North Carolina special?

Why does he love coming to Raleigh?

It seems like it's once a month right now.

- It is once a month.

And you have to remember the first lady was here on Friday.

You've had the vice president's husband who's been here multiple times.

It doesn't feel like you can go a week without a principal in North Carolina, but it's because that's how competitive North Carolina is and how key North Carolina is gonna be to determine who's president, who wins this election.

Having the president and vice president together was a historic event.

Something that had never happened before.

You don't see the president and the vice president, the sitting president, the sitting vice president campaign together.

That's just not something that happens.

It shows their focus on North Carolina.

They were here earlier in the day to talk about lowering prescription drug prices.

They were also here to talk about and celebrate with Governor Cooper that 400,000 people as of this week now have healthcare because of the expansion of Medicaid.

400,000 people have signed up.

And to quote Joe Biden, "That is a BFD."

- What does that stand for, BFD?

- Yeah, it's similar to PBS.

We'll let people draw their own conclusions, and then that night, Governor Cooper hosted a fundraiser, raised $2.3 million, which is the largest single fundraiser in North Carolina history.

I think it shows voters are excited, and North Carolina's are excited about the president's reelection.

It was huge energy, a lot of energy, a lot of folks from all around the state that were involved in that.

And again, Governor Cooper's gonna be leading the efforts here as he led the efforts on this fundraiser.

He's working incredibly close with Biden and Harris.

But again, big deal for them to be here.

I don't care if you're a Republican or Democrat, having the President of the United States and the vice president here together, it's a really cool thing, something that just doesn't happen.

- And your group is leading the Biden for NC Group, right?

You're behind that strategically.

Is it another day at the office for you?

Do you get so comfortable being around a person that you've known who becomes president, or once a person becomes president, that's the president, you know?

- Dude, it's the president.

- Is he Joe to you, or is he president?

- No, no, no, no.

- How does that work?

- Listen, I think sometimes you get incredible opportunities in life, and they're really amazing that you get to interact with some of these folks.

But, no, the President of the United States is an incredible, the respect that goes with that office and that title and just the aura of everything, I mean, as we were talking about pre-show, the fact that you had two Air Force One and Air Force Two both flying in, you had all, I mean, it was a huge deal, and I know it was a bit of a hassle for some folks who were tied up in traffic, but ultimately, it's a great thing for North Carolina.

- All right, Donna, a lot you can pick.

You can pick the RNC elevation.

You can talk about Joe Biden repeatedly coming to North Carolina.

Does Joe Biden's visits, would that make the Trump campaign equally as enthusiastic to get here at the right time?

- Sure, I mean I think that everyone's enthusiastic about North Carolina.

I mean, if you really look at why Joe Biden's here, of the states that Trump won, North Carolina had the narrowest margin.

So I mean, to them they say, okay, if we're gonna pick one off, it might be North Carolina, but they also have in Governor Cooper, a Democrat, one of the biggest cheerleaders for the Biden policy, and he's right there next to him in every step of the way.

We saw Josh Stein right there in the front row giving standing ovations and, you know, that kind of thing.

So I think that they see a lot of relationships.

strong relationships between, of course, Morgan knows much more about this than I do, but a strong relationship between the Cooper administration and the Biden administration.

That said, you're only really seeing them go to Raleigh, Charlotte, some of these deep blue areas where Biden enjoys about a 52% approval rating.

They're not looking for votes, they're looking for dollars.

I mean, that's really what it comes down to.

If they were to move into the rural areas, 28% approval rating.

So that huge take on that fundraising event is really one of the main reasons we're seeing a lot of activity coming.

- Senator Meyer, what do you think of the glow off of the Harris Biden visit on Roy Cooper who isn't acting like a lame duck by any means?

- No, I mean, Governor Cooper has done a tremendous job as governor and still maintains so much respect in the state, and I think can help sway some votes for the president.

They definitely have had a lot on their agendas that have been similar and accomplishments that have been locked together, the biggest one, of course, being Medicaid expansion.

But even on the infrastructure stuff that the president has been able to deliver in the way that the Cooper administration has made sure that we've seen job growth all across North Carolina They're definitely gonna be tied together.

And you're gonna see Governor Cooper on the campaign trail this year just as much as when he was running for office.

What does that mean for his future?

Only Governor Cooper knows, but he's definitely has kept his doors open and will continue to campaign this year.

- Senator Sawyer, the man himself is here, the top of the ticket for the Democrats.

How do Republicans react other than act like he's not here, but the presence has to be noted?

- Well, yeah, so I do see that there is some energy around having the governor and the president and the vice president all in one spot.

You know, president Obama actually came to Mooresville and I had folks going, are you going to see him?

I was like, of course I'm going to go see him.

He's a sitting president and he's here to celebrate our schools.

And so I'm one of those maybe Pollyannish people that believe in the office, regardless of who the Democrat or Republican is.

But in saying that, and Donna makes a really good point, is that, you know, the popularity for President Biden is not in my district, right?

And that is not necessarily, you know, the case in everybody's districts, but in these rural areas, there's almost like an anti or a hatred.

And we talked about motivation coming forward.

I think that's what you're seeing.

So it'll be interesting to know in November what happens when the voters actually decide.

- And Donna, back to you one last time, I wanna ask you about the RNC, but I'll ask her about about the.

Michael Wally goes up, Simmons comes in, what's the deal?

- Oh, sure.

So I mean, I think what you're seeing is President Trump emerging as a leader of the party.

I mean, that's basically what we're seeing because Watley Trump said he wanted Watley in that position.

Ronald McDaniel said, I'm stepping down, Watley's coming up.

And then in an effort to not leave a vacuum, I think, in the state.

And Watley said, look, Simmons has been right hand, he's been the boots on the ground.

He's been running this thing.

He needs to be elevated.

Trump endorsed him at the state level.

So you don't see that a lot, a presidential candidate coming in and endorsing the next chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party when the current one goes to the Republican National Committee.

So you're really seeing this relationship brew at the very ground level.

And I think some of that is because it's going to filter down into those more active rural areas where he's likely to find a lot of support.

- Pleasure having you on the show, Mr. Morgan.

Vickie.

Greg, time is up, believe it or not, and Donna always, thank you for sharing your insight and thank you for taking time to invest a half hour with us.

Email your thoughts and opinions to our email address, statelines@pbsnc.org.

We'll read every email right back to a few of you.

Keep it nice.

I'm Kelly McCullen, thanks for watching and we'll see you next time on State Lines.

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