>> CATHY: IT'S BEEN A SUMMER OF DROUGHT AND POOR AIR QUALITY HERE IN MINNESOTA.

AND THIS WEEK IS NO DIFFERENT.

DESPITE SOME RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION, THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE REMAINS IN DROUGHT.

AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES, ARE AGAIN UNDER AN AIR QUALITY ALERT AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS TRAVELED SOUTHWARD.

PAUL DOUGLAS IS HERE FOR HIS MONTHLY WEATHER CHAT.

PAUL HEADS UP HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PREDICT-IX, AND HIS WEATHER MUSINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE" AND ON WCCO RADIO.

AND WE'RE EXCITED TO HAVE MARK SEELEY JOIN US THIS WEEK AS WELL.

LONGTIME METEOROLOGIST AND CLIMATOLOGIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

BETWEEN THE TWO OF THEM, WHAT, MORE THAN 85 YEARS -- >> 185 YEARS, YES, YEAH.

>> 85 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE RIGHT HERE ON THE OLD OUCH.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU GUYS HERE.

WOW, DROUGHTY, SMOGGY, SOOTY, SMOKY SUMMER.

THIS IS NOT EXACTLY ATTRACTIVE, YOU GUYS.

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE, PAUL DOUGLAS?

>> WELL, I'M HERE BECAUSE MARK SEELEY HAS THE ANSWER KEY AND I WANT TO FIND OUT EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING ON HERE.

[ Laughter ] YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE MANY REASONS I MOVED TO MINNESOTA WAS THE AIR QUALITY.

YOU KNOW?

COOL, CLEAN, CANADIAN AIR.

WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT CANADIAN AIR, IT'S NOT A PEJORATIVE.

IT'S A GOOD THING.

YOU KNOW?

>> RIGHT, RIGHT.

>> AND WE DON'T HAVE HEAVY INDUSTRIAL UPWIND BUT WE HAVE A LOT OF TREES UPWIND AND WHAT HAPPENS IN ANADA DOESN'T STAY IN CANADA.

AND THE FIRES HAVE BEEN HISTORIC, RIGHT, MARK?

>> SURE HAVE.

AND ALSO THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS DAY TO DAY.

YOU LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAPS, YOU KEEP SEEING HIGH PRESSURE CELLS.

AND, SO, WE GET THE SMOKE, WE GET LACK OF PRECIPITATION, NO ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OPERATING OVER US LIKE WE USUALLY GET IN THE SUMMERTIME.

AND FOURTH HOTTEST JUNE IN STATE HISTORY, STATEWIDE BASIS.

AND THEN, YEAH, IT'S REALLY GONE CRAZY, AND I SENSE A FRUSTRATION FROM MOST PEOPLE THAT I ENCOUNTER.

YOU KNOW, IT'S REALLY BEEN A CHALLENGING SUMMER SO FAR.

IN RELATIVE TERMS, WE'RE LUCKY, THOUGH, PAUL, BECAUSE LOOK WHAT'S HAPPENING ELSEWHERE.

>> YEAH.

I'M GLAD I DIDN'T TAKE THE GIG IN PHOENIX.

>> Eric: WAS IT JUST RECENTLY WE RECORDED THE WARMEST DAY ON EARTH SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDKEEPING?

>> YES.

YES.

>> Eric: THAT'S SOBERING, WASN'T IT?

>> LAST WEEK.

AND LAST WEEK WAS PROBABLY THE WARMEST WEEK IN 100,000 YEARS OR LONGER.

AND, LOOK, THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS WHEN IT'S BEEN WARMER THAN THIS.

BUT THERE WAS ALWAYS A REASON FOR THAT.

EITHER VOLCANIC OR ASTRONOMICAL, CHANGES IN THE EARTH'S ORBIT.

BUT THIS TIME IT'S US.

AND IT'S GETTING HARDER AND HARDER TO DISMISS AND DENY WHAT'S HAPPENING.

AND DURING THE SUMMER, THAT'S WHEN ALL THE SYMPTOMS BECOME GLARINGLY OBVIOUS.

YOU MAY BE ABLE TO IGNORE IT IN JANUARY OR FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH I QUOTE YOU ALL THE TIME WHEN I GO OUT AND GIVE MY TALKS THAT RAIN AND ICE IN MID-WINTER IS NOW, WHAT, FOUR TIMES MORE LIKELY THAN IT WAS BEFORE 2000.

>> FOUR OR FIVE TIMES MORE LIKELY.

NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH, WE USED TO PRETTY CONSISTENTLY IN GENERATIONS GONE BY HAVE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ALL THE TIME.

>> RIGHT.

>> OKAY.

NOW WE'RE IN THE MODE OF ICE OR RAINFALL IN THAT INTERVAL AND WITH A GREATER AND GREATER FREQUENCY WITH EACH PASSING DECADE.

THAT'S THE OTHER ASIDE, PAUL, IS THE PACE OF CHANGE.

>> RIGHT.

>> IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WHERE WE MINNESOTANS LIVE, WE'RE SEEING A PACE OF CHANGE THAT'S JUST PHENOMENAL.

>> Cathy: I BET YOU GUYS HAVE SOME GRAPHICS, KNOWING BOTH OF YOU.

>> YES.

>> Cathy: KNOWING YOU WEATHER EXPERTS.

>> WELL, IT IS TELEVISION, RIGHT?

>> Cathy: IT IS TELEVISION, YES.

>> Eric: WE COULD USE A DROUGHT MAP.

>> WE DO HAVE A DROUGHT MAP.

THAT'S COMING UP.

LET ME JUST RECAP SOME OF THE THINGS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT.

>> Eric: SURE, PLEASE.

>> WITH JUNE SPECIFICALLY, HOTTEST JUNE ON RECORD WORLDWIDE.

AND THE FIVE HOTTEST JUNES ON RECORD HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS.

>> Cathy: WOW.

>> NOW, MAYBE THAT'S A COINCIDENCE.

I THINK NOT.

NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT DOME, WE'RE GETTING ALL THESE NEW WAYS OF DESCRIBING THE HEAT, HEAT DOMES AND MARINE HEAT WAVES.

I SAW A WATER TEMPERATURE IN THE EVERGLADES, 98°.

THE WATER TEMPERATURE.

AND WHAT IS THAT GOING TO DO TO HURRICANE SEASON?

WE DON'T KNOW.

BUT THANKFULLY, MERCIFULLY, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, WILL GET OFF RELATIVELY EASY.

WE'RE GOING TO BE IN THE 80s, JUST TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH, AS CLOSE AS KANSAS CITY AND EVEN CHICAGO, THE HEAT INDEX WELL OVER 100 NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT PEAKS.

AND YOU ARM THINGS UP, THAT INCREASES THE FREQUENCY OF FLOODING.

WE'VE BEEN SEEING SOME CRAZY FLOODS IN RECENT WEEKS.

MOST RECENTLY IN NEW ENGLAND, VERMONT, INDIA, ALL KINDS OF FLOODING.

AND I FOUND THIS STATISTIC FROM CLIMATE CENTRAL FASCINATING.

BACK IN 1980, IN THE UNITED STATES WE WENT 82 DAYS, ON AVERAGE, BETWEEN BILLION-DOLLAR DISASTERS.

NOW THAT HAS SHRUNK TO 18 DAYS BETWEEN BILLION-DOLLAR DISASTERS.

SO THE ADENCE OF THESE WEATHER EXTREMES IS INCREASING.

THE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF THESE EXTREMES THAT WE'VE HAD SINCE THE BEGINNING OF TIME, THEY'RE BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND MORE EXTREME.

WE'RE POURING TOBASCO SAUCE ON OUR ICE CREAM SUNDAE.

>> Eric: AND YOU'VE SEEN ALL OF THE RECORDS THAT HAVE FALLEN, EVERY FRIDAY I HEAR YOU TWO TALKING AND SOME OTHER RECORD HAS FALLEN.

>> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.

THE PACE THAT WE'RE SETTING RECORDS IS PHENOMENAL.

AND CATHY AND I MORE RECENTLY HAVE, ON MPR, HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE AMPLIFIED VARIABILITY, ERIC.

AND THAT, TOO, WE HAVE THESE LONG-TERM MEAN TRENDS, STATISTITIONS USE MEAN VALUES A LOT.

UPWARDS IN TEMPERATURE, UPWARDS IN PRECIPITATION, ET CETERA.

BUT THE BACKGROUND VARIATION IS INCREASING, AND THAT'S WHAT WORRIES ME ABOUT THE DROUGHT CYCLES WE'VE BEEN GOING THROUGH.

SINCE 2015 TO BOUT 2020, WE HAD NO DROUGHT IN MINNESOTA.

IT WAS HARD TO FIND DROUGHT.

BUT STARTING IN 2020, AND THEN EVERY YEAR SINCE WE'VE HAD DROUGHT CREEP INTO THE STATE LANDSCAPE, AND THIS YEAR, AS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IN RECENT WEEKS, IT DOESN'T LOOK TO ME LIKE IT'S GOING TO GO AWAY.

THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN IN THE SUMMER VERY OFTEN.

IT'S EITHER GOING TO REMAIN STABLE, THAT'S MAYBE THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO, OR IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND UNTIL WE GET INTO THE AUTUMN SEASON.

>> EXCUSE ME.

I HAVE TO -- SINCE MARK IS HERE, I HAVE TO ASK THE QUESTION.

I WAS UNDER THE ILLUSION THAT SPRINGS WERE TRENDING WETTER.

>> Cathy: EXACTLY.

>> AND EVEN EARLY SUMMERS.

IN, WHAT, 2019, WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR MINNESOTA.

>> RIGHT, RIGHT, YEAH.

>> WHAT HAPPENED?

I MEAN, THAT HAS BEEN MIND BLOWING FOR ME AS A METEOROLOGIST.

WHY IS IT TRENDING TOWARDS DROUGHT AND NOT WETTER?

>> VARIABILITY.

THE AMPLIFIED VARIABILITY.

WHEN WE HAVE -- WHEN WE GO THE OTHER WAY, WHEN WE GO INTO A MID LATITUDE DRY PATTERN, WE LOCK IN AND THAT'S IT.

WHEN WE GO INTO A MID-LATITUDE WET PATTERN, IT'S REALLY MORE AMPLIFIED.

SO IT'S BACK TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY THAT WE HAVE.

>> OKAY.

>> THAT WHEN THE SWITCH SWITCHES, THE TERM FLASH DROUGHT COMES INTO PLAY, CATHY, WHICH WE'VE TALKED ABOUT A LOT.

>> Cathy: EXACTLY.

>> BUT WE ALSO GO THE OTHER WAY AND SOMETIMES WHEN WE GO THE OTHER WAY, WE HAVE FLASH RECOVERY.

YOU KNOW, ALL OF A SUDDEN IF WE HAVE A WET AUTUMN, FOR EXAMPLE, WE COULD HAVE A PROLIFIC WET AUTUMN THAT'S TWO OR THREE TIMES NORMAL AND RECOVER FROM THIS DROUGHT YET THIS YEAR, ALTHOUGH I THINK THAT'S A LOW PROBABILITY.

THE RECENT STATISTICS, ERIC, SHOW THAT SINCE THE YEAR 2000, 65% OF OUR AUTUMNS HAVE BEEN WETTER THAN NORMAL.

>> Eric: OH!

>> WHAT'S THAT OLD ADAGE, ONLY IN MINNESOTA CAN YOU BE KNEE DEEP IN MUD WITH DUST BLOWING IN YOUR FACE.

I EAN -- >> Cathy: THAT'S TRUE.

REMEMBER THE DAY WE HAD THE SNOW AND TORNADOES?

>> ES, YES, YES.

>> RIGHT.

>> Cathy: YEAH.

>> I THINK THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES TO THE JET STREAM, A LOT OF CONCERN RIGHT NOW AMONG CLIMATOLOGISTS AND METEOROLOGISTS, JUST SHAKING THEIR HEADS, WE'RE SEEING THINGS WE HAVEN'T SEEN.

THE ARCTIC WARMING TWO TO FOUR TIMES FASTER THAN MID LATITUDES.

>> RIGHT.

>> AND THAT SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING THE SPEED OF THE JET STREAM AND THE CONFIGURATION AND WE'RE SEEING, TO YOUR POINT, MORE WETTER STALLING AND WHEN WEATHER STALLS, BAD THINGS HAPPEN.

>> Eric: NEXT TIME, CLIMATE CHANGE, WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT NEXT TIME YOU'RE WITH US.

>> ALL RIGHT.